As far the actual numbers go: factoring in the budget it's not going to be a box office bomb but it's not going to be a hit either.
I posted this yesterday, on the Fan Club's Yahoo Group newsgroup...
It's still a long way from making a profit. Based on the revenue and cost numbers reported so far (@ May 13), a fair estimate of its performance can be made...
$41.1MM is the gross box-office to date. Exhibition deals vary from screen-to-screen, chain-to-chain, but averaged together approximately 1/3 of it goes to the theaters; the studio will get about $28MM of it.
$30MM was its production budget. Add to that marketing, advertising, distribution, interest, etc., and the total out-of-pocket to Fox is [conservatively] closer to $40MM.
After 4-1/2 weeks, Fox has a contribution loss somewhere in the neighborhood of $(12MM).
Net international box office will help, and home video margin is high. They could take it to cash break-even; or not.
None of the above includes studio overhead costs. 20th Century Fox has a movie studio to pay for, and offices and staff in other cities too. When this thing generates a contribution that covers the overhead costs allocated to it, then it will be profitable.
I received feedback from someone in L.A. who says...
- Fox's share of the box office may be overstated by a couple million. Reportedly Fox made some exhibition fee concessions to push the movie onto as many screens as it did.
- The cash out-of-pocket estimate is too low. Total costs are reportedly closer to $50MM... $30MM production; plus $20MM for marketing, distribution, advertising/promotion, cost of capital, misc.
If those observations are true (and they are "heresay,"
unverified), this thing
may actually be $(25MM) cash-negative, to date.
An indication that Fox may be anxious about that, although there is no official news or release date for the DVD/BD, it's already been solicited with video distributors and Amazon is taking pre-orders.
Another observation... Fox put this out there in "super-saturation." That's defined as 3000+ screens; for the first two weeks, it played on 3500 screens. That is a marketing strategy primarily used for summer and holiday blockbusters, not a modestly budgeted project like this. $17MM in the opening weekend is abysmal for that many screens. Fox was hoping to open with at least $30MM. The initial reports of "respectable" were pure spin (it helped that Fox Corp. controls many of the media outlets that used that word).
This is not a success. But it's not a fiasco either, yet. International and home video returns may turn it around. Or, they may not. It'll be interesting to watch this continuing story unfold.
Hopefully, there won't be a sequel.