First off, that was awesome the way The Reds clinched the NL Central last night, with all due respect to the Cardinal fans here.
Secondly, The Red Sox are now officially eliminated, so I want to hear Jim's, and anybody else's opinion, if they have one about the closer role:
Papelbon has obviously not been as sharp this season and has been declining over the past few seasons. He's lost a few miles an hour on that fastball, and his control is nowhere near what it used to be, as I believe his walk totals have literally tripled. On nights when his splitter is not working, he can be scary to watch for a Red Sox fan. Eight blown saves and a 4 ERA will not cut it for the money he's asking.
Daniel Bard (who has been overworked and should not be pitching now that the games don't count), has been much better. He's a cheaper option, has a better fastball than Papelbon at this point, is younger, and his secondary pitch (slider), is more effective than Papelbon's splitter. You can make a very good argument he should be the closer next year.
Theo Epstein has said publically it's better to have two good relievers than one, and he has a point. Even a shaky Papelbon is better than any other guy in the pen not named Bard, so a part of me can see us hanging onto Papelbon for one more year. Another part of me also knows the Sox don't like to overspend on anybody, as they also assign a value to a player and stick with it. Like I said, 8 blown saves and a 4 ERA is not 10 + million worthy.
Ultimately, I say they hang onto Papelbon but put him on a leash. He may very well rebound, he's only going to be 30, but if things aren't working out again, I say he goes by the trade deadline and Bard's the new closer.
