Anybody want to play guess the division?
AL East
BOSTON - Fingers crossed here, but right now, they're raking against division rivals on the road, and have a strong home schedule come September. Lowell and Drew should be rested and ready, Mark Kotsay's great depth, and Tampa Bay have players who are new to this pennant race thing, so they're my wild car pick. Again, not a confident pick, but at gun point, I gotta go with Boston. However, if Beckett falters and Lester tires (very possible, as he was awful last start and has never logged this many innings in a season), Tampa will win the division. The reverse of Lester is Dice-K, who doesn't have a lot of innings and should be rested enough for the stretch.
AL CENTRAL
CHICAGO - Tough choice, as Minnesota has better pitching, yet Chicago's no slouch in that department. Offense is where the Sox are clearly dominant, so that's why I'll give the edge to Chicago.
AL WEST
THE MONTREAL EXPOS..........have a better chance than Texas, Oakland, and Seattle this season.
AL WILD CARD
Tampa Bay
NL EAST
The Phils, just because. Honestly, New York and Philly are so close, I'm only gonna say Philly cause NY is traumatized from last year. No other rason.
NL CENTRAL
CHICAGO
NL WEST
D-Backs. Laugh all you want, but in a short series, with Webb and Harden, they'll be tough to beat.
Wild Card
MILWAUKEE - The C.C. factor. Brew Crew will make the playoffs for the first time since I've been following baseball.
Let's see:
AL East: (Tampa leads by 3.5 games)
Boston
Games against +.500 teams: 20
Games against -.500 teams: 10
Home Games: 20 (43-18 at home)
Away Games: 10 (34-37 on road)
Tampa Bay
Games against +.500 teams: 20
Games against -.500 teams: 11
Home Games: 14 (48-19)
Away Games: 17 (32-32)
Head to Head: 6-6
My Prediction: Boston. Of course I'm biased, but I can't ignore the Sox having 2/3rds of their remaining games at home, and the fact that they've been playing much better on the road (6-2 so far on this trip), not to mention the experience edge. Not only does Boston have more vets, but their young guys are battle tested. Both have tough schedules record-wise: it's a wash considering they are playing the same teams (mostly division opponents). They most telling games will be against each other. Not only have they split the games they've played so far, but Boston has won all 6 at Fenway while Tampa has won all 6 at the Trop. My guess is if one of these teams can beat the other on the road said team will win the division.
AL Central: (Chicago leads by 1 game)
Chicago White Sox
Games against +.500 teams: 17
Games against -.500 teams: 12
Home Games: 13 (46-22)
Away Games: 16 (30-35)
Minnesota
Games against +.500 teams: 10
Games against -.500 teams: 19
Home Games: 12 (46-23)
Away Games: 17 (29-35)
Head to Head: 8-7 CWS
Prediction: This is hard; however, while the Twins have a 4 game set at Tampa they don't have to go to Yankee Stadium or Fenway while the White Sox do. The ChiSox also have a killer homestand coming up against the Angels and Jays. The Twins have better starting pitching, and the Sox have a suspect bullpen to try to get to Jenks. This will probably come down to the second to last series of the season, when these teams meet at the Metrodome but for now I'll pick the Twins to win.
AL West: (LAA leads by 15.5 games)
Seattle...Pilots have a better chance than the Expos, Mariners, Rangers or A's.
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay (+3.5 in the wild card), if not then Boston (- in the wild card) because the Rays would have won the division.
Minnesota (-2.5) and Chicago (-1.5) have a shot (whichever doesn't win the division), but with both of the AL East teams playing well on the road recently along with Boston's home-heavy schedule I don't see either collapsing that far. As for the Yankees (-7), they needed a sweep of Boston to have a good chance at the wild card: didn't happen. They needed to take 2 of 3 to have something of a chance: didn't happen. Now they need to beat Boston in the final game to have a hail mary chance at the wild card: after the Pedroia grand slam I shut the game off because the stench of loserdom was overwhelming (and I thought smell-o-vision was make believe). The players knew it, the fans knew it, and even Hank Steinbrenner (who looks just like his dad while his brother was fortunate enough to escape that fate) knew it: The Yankees are finished.
NL East: (Mets lead by .5 game)
New York Mets
Games Against +.500 teams: 16
Games Against -.500 teams: 12
Home Games: 15 (41-25)
Away Games: 13 (33-35)
Philadelphia
Games Against +.500 teams: 17
Games Against -.500 teams: 12
Home Games: 13 (39-29)
Away Games: 16 (34-31)
Head to Head: 9-5 NYM
Prediction: It is with much trepidation that I pick the Mets to outlast the Phils, only because they still have last season to atone for. Both teams still have games with the Cubs and Brewers in the near future.
NL Central: (Chicago leads by 6 games)
Chicago Cubs
Games Against +.500 teams: 26
Games Against -.500 teams: 3
Home Games: 13 (49-19)
Away Games: 16 (34-31)
Milwaukee
Games Against +.500 teams: 13
Games Against -.500 teams: 16
Home Games: 16 (41-24)
Away Games: 13 (36-32)
Head to Head: 6-4 CHC
My Prediction: Although the Cubs have an extremely tough schedule they are the best team in the National League. Their 6 game lead should hold up.
NL West (ARI leads by 3 games)
Arizona
Games Against +.500 teams: 7
Games Against -.500 teams: 22 (6 against LAD)
Home Games: 16 (37-28)
Away Games: 13 (31-37)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Games Against +.500 teams: 6 (all against ARI)
Games Against -.500 teams: 23
Home Games: 12 (39-30)
Away Games: 17 (26-38)
Head to Head: 7-5 ARI
My prediction: There's usually one division that totally blows since they extended the format, and this year it's the NL West. I'll go with the Diamondbacks because the Dodgers have been especially awful lately and have more games on the road.
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee (-). They are definitely the second-best team in the NL, and the team that can give the Cubs a run for their money in the post season. it's a shame we can't replace the NL West Champs with St. Louis (-3.5)...but then again they won a world series in a year when they barely made it over .500 so perhaps it's karmic justice.